Our Conviction Segments
Residential - fundamentals support rent and price growth
Residential remains one of Slättö’s highest-conviction segments, supported by long-term urbanisation and favourable demographics, but with clear near-term differences across Nordic markets.
Investment market
Denmark is currently leading the recovery, with transaction volumes back at normalised levels and prime yields now compressing again. Sweden is close behind, sentiment is improving, foreign capital has re-entered (notably focused on newly built products in major cities), and prime yields have stabilised and started to compress, especially in Stockholm. Finland remains the most subdued market with lower liquidity, but the distressed phase is fading and early yield compression is emerging.
Occupier market
On the occupier side, rental growth is forecast to be strongest in Denmark, followed closely by Sweden, while Helsinki is slower initially but expected to pick up later as construction activity slows and supply growth becomes constrained, supporting a renewed rental growth phase from 2028 onwards. In Sweden, the risk is increasingly about micro-location, vacancies are concentrated to smaller/peripheral regions and weaker submarkets, while the strongest labour market regions account for the majority of housing need. In the condo market, Sweden and Denmark are expected to see meaningful price growth, supported by constrained new supply and improved affordability dynamics as well as consumer confidence. Finland lags, but the consumer-vs-institutional pricing gap supports break-up strategies in selective submarkets.
- Denmark leads the recovery, Sweden follows. Finland is improving from a lower base.
- Fundamentals support rent and price growth, but location matters. Rent growth is strongest in Denmark/Sweden with Helsinki picking up later as supply tightens.
Logistics / Light-Industrial - light-industrial remains strong, logistics are improving
Investment market
The L/LI segment has remained resilient through the cycle. Transaction volumes grew year-on-year in 2025, driven by a strong rebound in Sweden, including several notable light-industrial portfolio trades with meaningful foreign investor participation. Prime yields were broadly stable in H2 2025 and continue a gradual downward trend; the yield spread between logistics and light-industrial has narrowed from the very wide levels seen in 2022, with market evidence of portfolio premiums in light-industrial.
Occupier market
Occupier fundamentals are consistent with a recovery narrative, leasing activity is steady and stabilising, logistics vacancies remain elevated in areas impacted by speculative development, but are gradually rebalancing (with falling vacancy in parts of Stockholm/Gothenburg as spec space is absorbed and new speculative supply slows). Light-industrial vacancy remains low and rental levels are stable with selective upward pressure in constrained submarkets. Denmark’s land scarcity around Copenhagen limits large-scale new development and pushes platforms outward, creating a favourable occupier backdrop, particularly for last-mile and well-located LI.
- Transaction market is holding up well, 2025 volumes improved (led by Sweden), and prime yields are stable to slightly down.
- Occupier markets are improving, logistics vacancies are easing as new supply slows, LI stays tight, and Copenhagen land scarcity supports rents—especially for last-mile and well-located assets.
Social Infrastructure - polarised market, significantly higher pricing in prime assets
Investment market
Transaction activity in social infrastructure remains subdued and selective, with liquidity concentrated in prime elderly care and judiciary facilities where demand is structurally strong. Pricing is highly polarized, investors continue to pay materially tighter pricing for modern purpose-built assets with strong counterparties on long leases, while assets with weaker private tenants and/or greater operational exposure face significantly wider bid–ask spreads and require meaningfully higher yields to clear.
Occupier market
The demand case is anchored in ageing demographics and an ageing building stock, driving sustained need for modern care facilities. At the same time, weakening birth rates reduce demand for certain education assets in some regions, increasing the importance of location and tenant quality.
A second structural demand pillar is judiciary: rising pressure on the Swedish justice system and outdated assets drive long-term need for modern facilities, with an indicated requirement of ~100,000 sqm of new court space by 2035.
- Social infra is selective, liquidity is mainly in prime elderly care and judiciary, with big pricing gaps between prime assets and assets with more operational risk.
- Ageing demographics support care facilities, while judiciary need is rising—around 100,000 sqm of new Swedish court space is indicated by 2035.
Hotels - resilient occupier market and improving investor confidence
Investment market
Investor confidence in Nordic hotel real estate is strong, with increasing capital flows from institutional funds and private equity. The market is focused on value-add strategies, driven by opportunities to unlock upside through repositioning, refurbishment, and operational optimization. Prime hotel yields are now starting to come down slightly, which points to better liquidity. Copenhagen is leading, followed by Stockholm and Oslo. Helsinki is still recovering slowly, with yields broadly unchanged at higher levels.
Occupier market
Operating performance remains supportive, Stockholm shows stable occupancy and rate growth with RevPAR above 2019, Copenhagen has rebounded strongly with RevPAR above 2019 and continued upside, Oslo stands out as the strongest 2025 performer, and Helsinki is improving but remains the weakest recovery, albeit with positive momentum as new supply is limited. Overall, the outlook is constructive into 2026 as demand stabilises and pricing strengthens.
- Hotel demand is attracting more capital, value-add is the main play, and prime yields are slowly coming down—Copenhagen leads, then Stockholm/Oslo while Helsinki lags.
- Operations are supportive: RevPAR is above 2019 in Stockholm and Copenhagen, Oslo is strongest in 2025, and Helsinki is set to strengthen as new supply is limited.